| Recommendation | PRICE RANGE | Target Price | Time Horizon |
| Accumulate | ₹ 2700-₹2750 | Rs. 3400 | 12 Months |
Jubilant Foodworks is one of the leading quick service restaurant (QSR) company. Which owns Dominos franchise in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh and also for Dunkin’ Donuts in India. Company is entering new Cuisine under the brand name Ekdum Biryani, Hong’s Kitchen and Popeyes, JFL forayed into FMCG segment with the launch of ChefBoss which has range of sauces and Pasta.
Key Highlights:
•QSR industry is a multi-year growth opportunity, as India is still under-served by the QSR network. As the culture of outdoor eating picks up in India with rise in per capita Income this Industry is expected to perform very well for this decade.
•Jubilant is a far superior QSR franchise, with huge store network potential and company is constantly expanding its reach with new stores and different products .Jubilant has a very strong Balance sheet which can fund this growth.
•Jubilant Foodwork in last three year are expanding their product offering by entering new cuisine and try to deleverage itself from pizza business. Their latest venture into Biryani which is the highest ordered food in India can be a big revenue growth trigger going forward. Jubilant’s new ventures in Chinese, Biryani, and Fried Chicken categories have the potential to be future growth.
•As online ordering is picking up and expected to gain pace in coming years, company is opening Small format stores, as small stores offer better unit economics and scope for faster unit economics.
•In Q3FY22 Company reported revenue growth of 13%, EBITDA came in at ₹319 cr up 14% and profit saw a growth of 7.5%YOY. EBITDA Margin improved 2 Bps to 26.4%.
•Domino’s parent has reinvented itself as a ‘technology company selling pizzas’ for several years now. The other big achievement of Jubilant Foodworks in the last few years has been the adaptation of technology in India. This led to considerable upgradation of their India app experience; facilitating far better analytics, their dependence on the food aggregator is far lower than other QSR peers, and thus the commission rates are far lower.
Outlook:
Jubilant Foodwork had been the best QSR companies with the best business model among QSRs in India, with an emphasis on and success in delivery and majority of their delivery is from their own channel. This has given it a huge advantage over its peers, which have higher Real Estate and overhead cost. It has had the best Balance Sheet, with a RoCE of over 20% for many years, Management new strategy of entering new venture will be future growth engine, Companies near term performance looks challenging as raw material cost is elevated, resignation of CEO Pratik Pota will also have an overhang on the company and with this Russia Ukraine conflict they might have to take impairment cost on their Russian Business in this quarter. Jubilant Foodworks stock have recently corrected due to these concerns and now look attractive as the long term growth thesis looks intact for Jubilant. On performance front we expect company to report EPS of Rs.50 for FY23E, at CMP of ₹2796 PE works out to be 56x.Hence, investors can ACCUMULATE the stock in the price range of ₹2700-2750 for target price of ₹.3400.
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