India’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged for the sixth straight meet even as food inflation concerns persist while economic activity stays resilient.
The MPC decided:
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To keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% by a 5:1 majority.
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The standing deposit facility rate, pegged 25 basis points below the repo rate, is at 6.25%.
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The marginal standing facility rate, which is 25 basis points above the repo rate, is at 6.75%.
Inflation Outlook:
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Amidst a general slowdown in core inflation, food inflation uncertainties still have an impact on headline inflation.
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Food Inflation remains volatile and would impact the overall inflation outlook going forward.
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Rabi Sowing has been favourable.
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Crude Oil prices remains volatile.
Growth Outlook:
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Household consumption is predicted to improve with continued improvement of manufacturing activity, buoyancy in construction, and a slow but steady recovery in the rural economy.
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Urban consumption is still strong due to rising income levels.
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There is a resurgence in private corporate investments and the drag from external demand is anticipated to lessen as exports increase.
RBI’s GDP and CPI Estimates:
| GDP Current Estimates | GDP Previous Estimates | |
| FY-25 | 7.00% | |
| Q1FY25 | 7.20% | 6.70% |
| Q2FY25 | 6.80% | 6.50% |
| Q3FY25 | 7.00% | 6.40% |
| Q4FY25 | 9.00% |
| CPI Current Estimates | CPI Previous Estimates | |
| FY-24 | 5.40% | 5.40% |
| Q4FY24 | 5.00% | 5.20% |
| FY-25 | 4.50% | |
| Q1FY25 | 5.00% | 5.20% |
| Q2FY25 | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| Q3FY25 | 4.60% | 4.70% |
| Q4FY25 | 4.70% |
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