According to a recent Bloomberg report, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, is anticipated to approve another increase in crude oil output at its upcoming meeting on October 5, 2025.
- Planned Increase: The group may raise production by at least 137,000 barrels per day, adding to the rise already scheduled for October.
- Context: This would continue the series of output increases implemented this year, reversing the deep production cuts enacted in 2023 and 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cautioned that if OPEC+ maintains this pace of production, the global oil market could face a record supply surplus by 2026, as output growth begins to outstrip global demand.
Iraq Resumes Kurdish Oil Shipments
Adding further pressure on global oil prices, Iraq has restarted crude exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to Turkey.
- Initial Flows: Between 180,000 and 190,000 barrels per day, with expectations to increase in the coming months.
- Route: Exports are transported via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which had been shut since March 2023 due to disputes over revenue sharing and control between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil companies.
- Significance: The restart follows an interim agreement among the stakeholders and is likely to contribute to global supply growth.
Summary
- OPEC+ may raise oil production by 137,000 bpd at its October 5 meeting.
- Global Supply Risk: IEA warns of potential supply surplus by 2026.
- Iraq: Kurdish oil exports resumed, adding ~180,000–190,000 bpd to the market.
- Market Implications: Increased production from OPEC+ and Iraq could weigh on oil prices in the near term.
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