Morning Outlook 18th November, 2022

NIFTY:

The NIFTY opened at 18358.70 with a gap down of 51points. Prices have initially moved up and filled the gap. The index moved further on the upside and then faced strong resistance. Prices recorded its intraday high at 18417.60 and then moved down. The nifty started consolidating afterwards in a tight narrow range, eventually breaking on the downside. The index has seen a sharp intraday fall in the last 30 minutes of trading, recorded its intraday low at 18312.95, and finally dosed at 18343.90 with a loss of 65.75 points or 0.36% down. All the sectoral indices have dosed lower except REAL1Y which ended with minor gains. AUTO led the bears today by closing 1.36% lower followed by MEDIA which ended with a loss of 1%. As we have mentioned, the short-term trend is up and a narrow trading range is now visible inside 18250 – 18450 for the past five trading days. This 200 points range is very narrow so it may break very soon. We have also suggested a trade which was to buy above 18500 or sell short below 18200. Since prices did not touch either level today, so this trade did not execute. We are recommending the same trade for tomorrow also. Traders should look for a buying opportunity on a breakout above 18500 or sell short on a break down below 18200. Keep a stop of 80 points and a target of 240 points from your entry price. In case of a gap apply the first 5-minute rule.

BANK NIFTY:

The BANK NIFTY opened at 42399.35 with a gap down of almost 100 points. The index initially moved higher and filled the gap after recording its intraday low at 42366.55 in its initial trades. Prices then saw a dip and then a gain moving higher to record its intraday high at 42622.75. The index has seen a sharp intraday fall in the last 30 minutes of trading and finally dosed at 42426 with a loss of 72 points. PSU BANKS have outperformed today and closed higher by 0.79%. PVT BANKS have underperformed today and ended lower by 0.13%. Within the index, in terms of points, ICICI BANK contributed the highest on the upside while HDFC BANK contributed the lowest. For today, we have suggested a trade: “buy above 42700 or sell short below 42000. Keep a stop of 300 points a target of 1200 points.” The index did not hit either level so this trade did not execute. We are recommending the same trade for tomorrow also. Traders should look for a buying opportunity above 42700 or a shorting opportunity below 42000. Keep a stop of 300 points and a target of 1200 points. In case of a gap apply the first 15 minutes rule. The short-term trend is up. Today the index moved even narrow inside a range of just 256 points. For the past five trading days, the index is hovering inside a narrow range of almost 700 points. This narrow range suggests a sharp move is about to come. Take trade in the direction of a breakout.

TECHNICAL PICKS

DERIVATIVE PICKS

TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

NEWS UPDATES

• Indian stock benchmarks closed lower on Thursday, dragged by utilities, consumer durables and auto stocks. The Sensex closed 0.37% lower at 61,750.60, while the Nifty 50 fell by a similar magnitude to close at 18,343.90.

• Nykaa’s parent company FSN E-Commerce Ventures tumbled 4 percent today on heavy volumes, after multiple trades took place in the block deal window. According to Bloomberg data, 57.1 million shares – about 2 percent equity – changed hands in five bunched trades.The stock was quoting Rs 176.25 on the National Stock Exchange, down by 4.45 percent, at 10am on Thursday. It has declined 16.5 percent from its November 14 close of Rs 211 apiece.

• Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist, Morgan Stanley, told CNBC-TV18, that he believed Asia would outperform the US in the current financial year on the back of domestic demand, as he also discussed India’s inflation dynamics and export outlook.

• India’s trade deficit widened in October as exports shank to a 20-month low in the April-October period, while the merchandise trade deficit doubled from a year ago, reigniting concerns over the widening current account deficit (CAD)

Source: Economic Times,  Indian Express, Business Today, Livemint, Business Standard, Bloomberg Quint

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