India’s smartphone market recorded a 3% year-on-year (YoY) growth in the third quarter of 2025, with 48.4 million units shipped, according to research firm Omdia. However, experts caution that this momentum may not translate into strong year-end sales.
Drivers of Q3 Growth
The modest growth was fueled by:
- New product launches in July and August.
- Retail incentives and marketing campaigns pushing inventory to channels.
- An earlier festive season, which pulled forward sales and stock movement.
Omdia clarified that “shipped units” reflect devices sent from factories to distributors and retailers, rather than actual consumer sales.
Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia, noted:
“Q3’s momentum was largely sustained through incentive-led channel push rather than pure consumer demand recovery.”
Market Share Leaders
| Vendor | Units Shipped (Million) | Market Share |
| Vivo (excluding iQOO) | 9.7 | 20% |
| Samsung | 6.8 | 14% |
| Xiaomi | 6.5 | – |
| OPPO (excluding OnePlus) | 6.5 | – |
| Apple | 4.9 | 10% |
- Vivo retained its top spot, followed by Samsung and Xiaomi, narrowly overtaking OPPO.
- Apple returned to the top five, driven by smaller cities, discount-led upgrades on older models, and the traction of its iPhone 17 base variant.
Incentives and Promotions
Vendors reallocated marketing budgets toward high-impact retail incentive programs rewarding sell-through, including:
- Cash-per-unit bonuses, tiered margins, and dealer contests with rewards like gold coins and international trips.
- Consumer schemes such as zero-down-payment EMIs, micro-instalment plans, bundled accessories, and extended warranties.
These measures motivated retailers and distributors to absorb higher inventory ahead of the festive season.
Outlook and Challenges
Despite the early momentum, analysts warn of inventory concerns for the October-December period:
- Urban demand remains cautious, affected by employment uncertainties and cost sensitivity, limiting actual sell-through.
- Rural demand is stable but insufficient to offset urban hesitancy.
Chaurasia added:
“For full-year 2025, we expect a modest decline, reflecting a fragile recovery cycle sensitive to economic tailwinds and channel corrections.”
Summary
India’s smartphone market posted moderate Q3 growth on the back of new launches, early festive sales, and retailer incentives. However, urban demand weakness and potential inventory build-up may weigh on Q4 sales, leaving full-year 2025 growth projections cautious.
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