India’s rice production is projected to reach a record high of 152 million tonnes during the 2025–26 crop and marketing season, according to the latest outlook from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The forecast reflects favourable growing conditions and expanded cultivation across major rice-producing regions.
The USDA attributes the projected increase primarily to a supportive southwest monsoon, a rise in the total area under cultivation, and positive in-season crop conditions. Satellite imagery has indicated healthy crop development across key producing states. Rice cultivation continues to attract farmers due to its relatively high yield potential and comparatively lower exposure to climate-related risks, contributing to sustained production growth.
Wheat Output Also Expected to Rise
In addition to rice, wheat production in India is also expected to increase in the 2025–26 season. The USDA estimates wheat output at 117.9 million tonnes, supported by a significant rise in sowing area. Wheat acreage is projected to expand to 24.14 million hectares, compared with 21.78 million hectares in the previous year, reflecting higher planting activity during the season.
Policy Measures Supporting Agricultural Output
The USDA report also notes ongoing policy initiatives aimed at supporting agricultural productivity. The Government of India continues to implement sector-specific programmes to strengthen crop yields and farm output. One such initiative is the National Mission on Edible Oils–Oilseeds, which focuses on improving oilseed productivity through the adoption of improved crop varieties and modern agricultural practices.
Under this mission, the government has introduced 432 new high-yielding varieties and hybrids across nine major edible oilseed crops. In parallel, a network of more than 600 value chains has been developed to support production, processing, and market linkages across the oilseed sector.
Outlook for Food Grain Production
The combination of favourable monsoon conditions, expanded sowing areas, and the use of improved crop varieties is expected to support higher agricultural output in the coming season. According to the USDA, these factors position India for continued growth in staple food grain production, reinforcing its role as a major global producer of rice and wheat.
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