Morning Outlook 27th September, 2022

NIFTY:

The NIFTY opened at 17156.30 with a big gap down of 171 points. Prices moved down but quickly turned up then again moved down after recording its intraday high at 17196.40. Prices have seen a sharp decline, breaking down at 17000 and then rising after recording its intraday low at 16978.30. A strong rally brought prices near its opening tick but could not sustain there. The index moved down again in the last hour of trading and finally closed at 17016.30 near its day low with a loss of 311.05 points or 1.8% down. All the sectoral indices have contributed to the downside and closed lower EXCEPT IT which ended with a gain of 0.57%. METAL, AUTO, and OILGAS led the bear’s today and closed with more than a 3% loss. The NIFTY continued last week’s bearish momentum and closed lower for the fourth consecutive trading day. The index has seen a down move of more than 800 points in these four days. The volatility again rose today exceptionally. The INDIA VIX is now moving around 22 suggesting volatility is very high which is unfavourable for the bulls. The short-term trend is down. Support around 17200 has broken down and now the index is moving near its strong support zone inside 16800 -17000. Previous support at 17200 should now act as resistance.

BANK NIFTY:

The BANK NIFTY opened at 39027.85 with a big gap down of 528 points. The index moved further on the downside after recording its intraday high at 39229.40. A sharp decline brought the index below 38500 and prices have recorded its intraday low at 38492.20. The index then bounced up sharply and then again moved down and finally closed at 38661.45 with a loss of 894 points. PVT and PSU BANKS both indices have performed almost the same today, saw a sharp decline, and closed lower by 2.62% & 3.69% respectively. Within the index, in terms of points, HDFC BANK contributed the highest on the downside followed by ICICI BANK. BANK NIFTY continued moving lower for the fourth consecutive trading day and closed with a big loss of over 2%. It was a volatile day today where prices have seen sharp intraday moves in both directions after opening with a down gap. The short-term trend is down. The index has seen a decline of more than 3000 points in the last four trading days. After such a sharp move, prices tend to consolidate and move sideways. We should wait for this decline to be stopped and then form some kind of consolidation. As of now, we should avoid trading the index and wait for an adequate setup to emerge.

 

TECHNICAL PICKS

DERIVATIVE PICKS

TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

Domestic                                                                                                                                                  International
INR: Interest Rate Decision on 30th September, 2022 INR: RBI MPC Meeting Minutes on 30th September, 2022	USD: Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) on 27th September, 2022 USD: New Home Sales (Aug) on 27th September, 2022

NEWS UPDATES

• Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on September 26 with Nifty closing near 17,000 amid selling across the sectors barring IT. At Close, the Sensex was down 953.70 points or 1.64% at 57,145.22, and the Nifty was down 311 points or 1.79% at 17,016.30. About 630 shares have advanced, 2860 shares declined, and 120 shares are unchanged.
• Harsha Engineers listed at Rs 444 on BSE, a premium of 34.5% over IPO price of Rs 330. On NSE, it listed at Rs 450, 36.36% premium, and closed +47% up at 486.
• The Indian rupee resumed its slide to hit another record low against the U.S. dollar. The currency opened at 81.54 against the greenback, falling as much as 0.7% compared to Friday’s close of 80.99.
• India Will Emerge A Relative Winner From Current Global Situation. There is interest towards Indian businesses post-pandemic with investors and CEOs curious “to understand whether this time is India’s time”, according to JPMorgan’s Leo Puri.
• The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee will meet later this week at a time of great global turmoil and uncertainty. A 50 basis points rate hike seems to be the most likely outcome of the meeting.

Source: Economic Times,  Indian Express, Business Today, Livemint, Business Standard, Bloomberg Quint

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