Indian Market Outlook:

The Key benchmark indices fell over 3 percent over the week on weak global cues however recovery showed on Friday trading session on the hope of fresh stimulus for the U.S. economy. Nifty ended the week 3.95 percent lower at 11050.25 points while Sensex ended 3.75 percent lower at 37388.66 points. Broader market too fell sharply. BSE Midcap index ended 4.73 percent lower, while the BSE Small cap index fell 5.26 percent, during the course of the week. Foreign Institutional Investors were the net sellers during the week; sell equities worth Rs.10491 crore while the DIIs were the net buyers of Rs.4249 crore. Government set to announce another fiscal stimulus package as per report by Moneycontrol. These plans could involve a bigger direct fiscal outlay compared to the previous two packages and may include a Rs 35,000 crore urban jobs scheme, a massive infrastructure initiative with emphasis on 20-25 big projects which can be completed this year, and continuing focus on rural job and farm schemes and free food and cash transfers. Going forward Global cues will continue to be in focus as resurgence in virus cases around the world leads to more restrictions and more pressure on the economic recovery. On Macro front, RBI Interest Rate Decision is scheduled on 1st October, 2020 while Infrastructure output for August and Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI data would be announced on 30th September and 1st October, 2020 respectively.

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Latest Spot Price (in US $)

Precious Metal Current Price Change (%) 3 Month 6 Month       1 Year
Gold 1,867.85 -4.59 3.86 12.39 18.96
Silver 23.16 -14.63 28.45 46.86 22.47
Platinum 843.90 -9.49 4.96 4.83 -0.27
USD/INR 73.71 0.23 -2.50 -1.58 3.86
Crude 40.25 -1.76 4.57 78.10 -29.74

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Global Weekly Events

Date Region Event Description Forecast Previous
Sep 30,2020 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.2 51.0
Sep 30,2020 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -20.4% -2.2%
Sep 30,2020 INR Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Aug)  – -9.6%
Sep 30,2020 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -31.7% -5%
Oct 01,2020 INR Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI 48.2 52.0
Oct 01,2020 INR Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 4.00%

Domestic Economy Indicators

Heading Indicators Current Previous
 RBI Policy Rate Policy Repo Rate 4.00% 4.00%
Reserve Policy Rate 3.25% 3.25%
Bank Rate 4.25% 4.25%
 Reserve Ratio CRR 3% 3%
SLR 18.00% 18.00%
 Inflation Rate Wholesale Price Index 0.16% -0.58%
Consumer Price Index 6.69% 6.96%
 Trade Data Export ($ Million) 22700 23640
Import($ Million) 29470 28470
 Industry IIP -10.4% -15.7%

 

Domestic Indices Closing(25th September) Change %Change
BSE Sensex 37,388.66 -1,457.16 -3.75
Nifty 11,050.25 -454.70 -3.95
Mid Cap 14,336.68 -711.12 -4.73
Small Cap 14,495.58 -804.40 -5.26
Bank Nifty 20,982.35 -1,048.70 -4.76

 

Global Indices Closing(25thSeptember) Change %Change
Dow Jones 27,012.36 -645.06 -2.33
Nasdaq 10,837.34 44.06 0.41
FTSE 5,842.67 -164.38 -2.74
Nikkei 23,204.62 -155.68 -0.67
Hang Seng 23,235.42 -1,219.99 -4.99
Shanghai Com 3,219.42 -118.67 -3.56

 

Net Inflow (Cr) FII DII
21-Sep-2020 -3,912.44 1,629.23
22-Sep-2020 -2,080.21 2,070.63
23-Sep-2020 -2,072.76 878.91
24-Sep-2020 -1,885.69 188.64
25-Sep-2020 -539.81 -517.95
Total -10,490.91 4,249.46

 

Top Gainers Closing Price Prev Close Chg (%)
Vedanta 137.05 130.95 4.66
HCL Tech 827.70 810.60  2.11
Infosys 1011.45 1002.15     0.93

 

Top Losers Closing Price Prev Close Chg (%)
IndiaBulls Hsg 145.25 178.60 -18.67
Indusind Bank 514.85 613.20 -16.04
Tata Motors 127.25 147.90 -13.96
Bharti Airtel 439.65 494.55 -11.10
Tata Steel 352.10 395.50 -10.97

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 Economic News:

  • India’s Rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) on Friday reaffirmed India’s sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade (BBB-) with a stable outlook for the second time in four months, as it expects Asia’s third largest economy to bounce back in 2021-22 from its projected record contraction in FY21 because of the coronavirus crisis. Strong electoral confidence enjoyed by the Union government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi may spur economic reforms, but the worsening fiscal outlook is likely to constrain the government’s ability to stimulate the economy, S&P said.

 

  • The country’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $3.378 billion to touch a lifetime high of $545.038 billion in the week ended Sept. 18, Reserve Bank of India data showed. In the previous week ended Sept. 11, the reserves had declined by $353 million to $541.660 billion. During the reporting week, the forex kitty rose mainly due to an increase in foreign currency assets, a major component of reserves.

  Industry News:

  • Borrowings by the Indian public sector, which includes the central government, state governments and government-owned enterprises, spiked in the first half of the ongoing financial year. The surge in public sector borrowings, as they are collectively termed, came against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a sharp fall in private sector activity. Total borrowings across the central government, state governments and public sector enterprises rose to Rs 11.82 lakh crore until Sept. 23, data compiled by Bloomberg Quint showed. This is an increase of 58% over the Rs 7.46 lakh crore borrowed in the first half of the previous financial year.

 

  • The government is working on a Rs 15,000-crore production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for the pharmaceutical industry, a senior official told ET. The scheme intends to promote indigenous manufacture of complex generics, biosimilars and high value-add medicines, to boost domestic drug production and cut dependence on costly imports. The proposal by the department of pharmaceuticals, which is likely to go before the Union Cabinet for approval soon, will give financial incentives to eligible manufacturers on the sale of complex generic drugs and biopharmaceuticals.

Company News:

  • Global investors which made a beeline to invest in Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL’s) digital arm – Jio Platforms – are now vying for billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled retail wing of Reliance- Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd Ltd (RRVL). After Jio investors Silver Lake and KKR wrote cheques for RRVL too, it is being reported that private equity (PE) firms General Atlantic and TPG are in talks with RRVL to invest $1 billion each in the latter, said an ET report.

 

  • The Shapoorji Pallonji Group, which has decided to exit the Tata group, will restructure Rs 10,900 crore of its debt under the resolution framework for pandemic-related stress, a group official said. The relief is being sought under the one-time loan restructuring plan approved by the Reserve Bank of India after it accepted the KV Kamath panel report, which allows financially stressed companies to recast their debt for two years, the official said.

 

  • Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd’s (RJio) recently-announced post-paid plans indicate the telco’s continued steps towards improving the industry-level average revenue per user (ARPU), according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). The tariff differentiations between telcos — RJio, Bharti Airtel Ltd (BAL) and Vodafone Idea Ltd (VIL) — have also been gradually thinning away over the past nine to 12 months, indicating lowering competition intensity.

Global News:

  • S. orders for durable goods increased in August at a slower pace than expected, restrained by declines in bookings for motor vehicles and military equipment, though a gauge of business investment rose more than forecast. Bookings for durable goods — or items meant to last at least three years — increased 0.4% from the prior month after an upwardly revised 11.7% jump in July, Commerce Department data showed Friday.

 

  • Ray Dalio used the latest installment of his ongoing series on the changing world order to identify clear red lines that, if crossed, could result in a deadly war between China and the U.S., but the real enemy in the conflict may lie within. While Dalio doesn’t think the current trade war has been “taken very far,” any attempt by China to restrict American access to rare earth elements, or by the U.S. to restrict China’s access to semiconductors from Taiwan or crude oil, for example, could signal that the current conflict was about to get a lot worse.

 (Source: Bloomberg Quint, Economic Times, BusinessToday, Business Standard, Financial Express,Investing, Moneycontrol, livemint)

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Forthcoming Corporate Actions

Security Name Ex-Date Purpose Security Name Ex-Date Purpose
LAURUSLABS 29-Sep-20 Stock  Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.2/- CPL 30-Sep-20 Dividend – Rs. – 0.04
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Symbol Purpose BM Date Symbol Purpose BM Date
A2ZINFRA Quarterly Results 28-Sep-20 MAHESH Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
AIML General 28-Sep-20 MYSPAPE Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
FRANKLININD General 28-Sep-20 NAGARFERT Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
FUTURAPOLY Audited Results;Quarterly Results 28-Sep-20 PARMCOS-B Audited Results 30-Sep-20
GDL Interim Dividend;General 28-Sep-20 RUBYMILLS Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
GGL General 28-Sep-20 SIMPLEXINF Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
HINDEVER Quarterly Results 28-Sep-20 SUNRAJDI Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
KOHINOOR Quarterly Results 28-Sep-20 THAKRAL A.G.M.;General 30-Sep-20
PALMJEWELS General 28-Sep-20 TIRUSTA A.G.M.;General 30-Sep-20
SHALBY Right Issue;Preferential Issue 28-Sep-20 UDL Audited Results;Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
SHRMFGC A.G.M.;General 28-Sep-20 UNIPLY Audited Results;Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20
ASHFL Dividend;General 29-Sep-20 URJAGLOBA Right Issue of Equity Shares;General 30-Sep-20
BETALA A.G.M.;General 29-Sep-20 VIJSOLX General 30-Sep-20
DDIL A.G.M.;General 29-Sep-20 AMRAAGRI Quarterly Results 1-Oct-20
DIKSAT General 29-Sep-20 GILADAFINS General 1-Oct-20
NGIL General 29-Sep-20 HARLETH A.G.M.;General 1-Oct-20
SIIL General 29-Sep-20 JETKINGQ Quarterly Results 1-Oct-20
ABHICAP General 30-Sep-20 MENNPIS General 1-Oct-20
AMALGAM General 30-Sep-20 NECLIFE Quarterly Results;General 1-Oct-20
BIJHANS General 30-Sep-20 SAKUMA Preferential Issue of shares;General 2-Oct-20
BLUBLND-B Quarterly Results 30-Sep-20 ARIHCAPM General 3-Oct-20
BPCAP General 30-Sep-20 NIDL General 3-Oct-20
EMMSONS Quarterly Results;General 30-Sep-20 SAGARPROD Amalgamation 3-Oct-20

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Major Economy Indicators

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