outlook

NIFTY:

For the second consecutive day, the NIFTY moved in a narrow range with a daily range of just 127 points. This is lower than Friday, which already had a lower range of 155 points approx.  Narrow ranges are sign of an impending big move. What we cannot say is the direction in which the move will come.

The NIFTY breaks out of the large trading range above 9400. it also breakdown below 8900. Given the current close of 9300, it is probably easier for the NIFTY to move up and cross 9400. Or rather, it is easier for the trader to take  the trade if 9400 is broken on the upside.

This is so because the trader will have to see a rally of 100 points before this breakout occures. For the downside brekdown, the NIFTY will have to move from 9300 to 8900 for the breakdown to get confirmed. This means a 400 points decline is needed before confirmation. This is probably not a good trade.

Trading opportunities

A narrow range day which is repeatedly visible in the NIFTY tells us that a big move is coming soon. Traders should be ready to buy above 9350 in anticipation of an upside breakout. They should also be willing to go short below 9200, in anticipation of a decline towards 8900.

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News Updates

  • IndusInd Bank on Monday reported a 77 per cent sequential decline in standalone net profit at Rs 301.84 crore in the March quarter of FY20 (Q4FY20), against Rs 1,300.2 crore clocked in the December quarter of current fiscal (Q3FY20). The bank’s asset quality, too, worsened during the quarter under review. The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) came in at Rs 5,146.74 crore, up from Rs 4,578.43 crore reported in Q3FY20. In terms of ratio, the number rose 27 bps to 2.45 per cent from 2.18 per cent.

  • India is considering a proposal to guarantee as much as 3 trillion rupees ($39 billion) of bank loans to small businesses as part of a plan to restart Asia’s third-largest economy reeling under the impact of a 40-day lockdown, people with knowledge of the matter said. Under the proposal, small businesses will be eligible for an additional 20% of their outstanding credit limit, which will be fully backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private.

  • HDFC Life Insurance posted a 14.5 percent year-on-year (YoY) decrease in consolidated net profit for the March quarter (Q4) at Rs 311.65 crore. This was due to a drop in net investment income and a rise in provisions. However, both annualised premium equivalent (APE) and value of new business (VNB) saw a double-digit growth in FY20. For the full year (FY20), the annualised premium equivalent (APE) rose by 18 percent YoY to Rs 7,407 crore.

Source: Economic Times,  Moneycontrol  ,Business Today, Business Standard, Bloomberg Quint

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