2020-03-20-OutlookNIFTY:

When will bear market end?

Markets fell more than 4000 points from their lifetime highs. If we take today’s lows, then the NIFTY has dropped 4600 points from its lifetime high to today’s lows, and almost 35% of its total value gone in just a month.

A very fair question comes to our mind: when will this carnage end?

With a lot of regrets, we have to say: we do not know when this decline will come to an end. Support levels for the NIFTY have no meaning at all.

in an atmosphere of fear and panic, support levels are hardly going to be respected. Bear markets do not end suddenly. They end with a lot of base-building. It gives us enough time to start getting a sense that a market low is coming. As of now, we have new lows everyday, and there is no base-building. Options volatility is falling regularly. Today is the third day when we observe a fall in option volatility and does not mean that the volatility is falling minute by minute. It does mean that overall we are getting a slowing of implied volatility. The only sign we have that markets are likely to go into a period of stability sooner.

TECHNICAL PICKS

COMPANY  CMP B/S RATIONALE
     SBICARD 692.05 BUY The stock has given the breakout with volume  on the intraday as well as on the daily chart. The stock can be bought at CMP with a stop loss of  672 and for the target of  725-760.
      JUSTDIAL 316.55 SELL The immediate trend of the stock is weak . The stock can be sold  at CMP with a stop loss of  346 and for  the target of  280.

DERIVATIVE PICKS

STOCK OPTION Strike Price Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Stop Loss Target Remarks
ITC 160 CE BUY 9.50 CMP 4 22 OI Increase
Long Buildup Short Buildup
Stocks Price Price% OI % OI Stocks Price Price% OI % OI
KOTAKBANK.Mar 26 1196.65 1.92 8.74 6782800 TATAPOWER.Mar 26 34.05 -3.27 22.24 60192000
BHARTIARTL.Mar 26 442.95 4.26 7.69 50049189 TATASTEEL.Mar 26 267.15 -4.2 20.67 19471500
INFY.Mar 26 550 2.77 6.76 31418400 M&M.Mar 26 316.85 -8.62 18.98 13027000
ITC.Mar 26 159.85 6.64 6.64 1.07E+08 FEDERALBNK.Mar 26 51.8 -3.9 18.51 42182000
BAJAJ-AUTO.Mar 26 2185.95 0.87 6.38 1838750 BHARATFORG.Mar 26 306.05 -12.13 17.98 7131800
                                                                        Short Covering                                                                              Long unwinding
Sector Price Price% OI% OI Sector Price Price% OI% OI
EXIDEIND.Mar 26 140 5.38 -19.02 4680600 NIITTECH.Mar 26 982.3 -11.21 -13.86 517500
JSWSTEEL.Mar 26 165 0.76 -11 32342600 CUMMINSIND.Mar 26 420.45 -5.08 -12.98 1001700
PNB.Mar 26 36.95 1.79 -9.4 67819300 SUNPHARMA.Mar 26 362.45 -0.06 -11.69 50656250
TVSMOTOR.Mar 26 364.65 1.03 -4.34 3924450 VOLTAS.Mar 26 543.05 -4.8 -10.68 1748000
LUPIN.Mar 26 637.5 3.73 -3.77 4860100 GRASIM.Mar 26 490.05 -6.81 -10.12 21765750

Top Delivery Percentage

Stocks Price %Chg Total Qty Delivery Del % % Change
Sectors Price Change % Quantity
Godrej Cons Products Ltd 523.75 2.89 4342336 1904363 68.76 INDIA VIX 72.2 12.88 86235
TATA CONSULTANCY SERV LT 1658 -2.26 5713269 4974137 63.41 Nifty Pharma 6655.5 -0.75 86235
Infosys Limited 554.95 -4.84 16060126 11600859 60.61 Nifty FMCG 23970.75 -0.89 86235
NTPC Limited 88.1 -2.97 21246111 20956877 60.48 Nifty Bank 20083.5 -2.41 86235
TECH MAHINDRA LIMITED 595.45 -1.32 3333751 3924913 60.39 Nifty 50 8263.45 -2.42 86235
HDFC Ltd. 1755.8 -4.67 6682574 6416705 60.12 Nifty IT 11340 -3.51 86235
HDFC BANK LTD. 975.1 -2.44 21338641 9357160 58.51 Nifty Energy 10042.95 -4.05 86235
Kotak Mahindra Bank Limi 1322.7 -4.41 4821135 3796805 57.7 Nifty Media 1086.9 -4.74 86235
Power Grid Corporation o 162 2.56 19946876 12871551 57.68 Nifty Metal 1574.2 -5.41 86235
BRITANNIA IND LTD. 2686 -0.85 567266 451900 57.13 Nifty Auto 5180.5 -6.09 86235

Upcoming Economic Data

   Domestic                                                                                                                                                  International
•INR:  FX Reserves, USD on 20th March ,2020 •USA: Existing Home Sales (Feb) on 20th  March,2020

•USA: New Home Sales (Feb) on 24th  March,2020

News Updates

•India’s rupee weakened past 75 to a dollar to a new low as outflows from the nation’s stocks and bonds accelerated amid a global rout in risk assets. The rupee retreated 1 percent to 75.0112 to go past the key psychological 75 level for the first time. Traders cited state-run banks selling dollars in a bid to ease the currency’s drop.

•ITC Ltd. said it will offer higher dividend payouts for the ongoing financial year compared to the previous three fiscals. India’s largest cigarette manufacturer, in a statement on its website, said its dividend payout policy from financial year ending March 2020 over the next few fiscal years is expected to be 80-85 percent of its net profit—higher than the nearly 69 percent average over last three years.

•The Reserve Bank of India has extended a Rs 60,000-crore credit line to Yes Bank Ltd. for meeting obligations to depositors, sources said today. This is in line with the assurance given by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday that the regulator is ready to offer liquidity to Yes Bank after lifting of moratorium.

•IndiGo CEO Ronojoy Dutta announced on Thursday that the airline was instituting pay cuts for senior employees and he would himself take the highest cut of 25 per cent amid the novel coronavirus pandemic that has hit the aviation industry hard.

Source: Economic Times,  Moneycontrol  ,Business Today, Business Standard, Bloomberg Quint

BOARD MEETINGS

Company Name Purpose Ex-Date Company Name Purpose Ex-Date
ADITRI General 20-Mar-20 PRIMAPLA Interim Dividend 20-Mar-20
ENVAIREL General 20-Mar-20 ASIANTNE General 21-Mar-20
ESCORTS Preferential Issue;Reduction of Capital 20-Mar-20 INANI General 21-Mar-20
JINAAM General 20-Mar-20 INDINFO General 21-Mar-20
JYOTIN General 20-Mar-20 MADHUVEER General 21-Mar-20
KIRANSY-B General 20-Mar-20 MOTILALOFS Buy Back of Shares 21-Mar-20
L&TFH Interim Dividend 20-Mar-20 PROVESTSER General 21-Mar-20
MANVIJAY General 20-Mar-20 REGENCY Issue Of Warrants;Preferential Issue 21-Mar-20

Corporate Action

Company Name Ex-Date Purpose Company Name Ex-Date Purpose
ACE 20-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.50 THERMAX 20-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 7.00
AKSCHEM 20-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.50 VISAKAIND 20-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 5.00
ALBK 20-Mar-20 Amalgamation ADANIENT 23-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.00
ANDHRABANK 20-Mar-20 Amalgamation ALICON 23-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.25
CONTROLPR 20-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 4.50 ALLCARGO 23-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.00
CORPBANK 20-Mar-20 Amalgamation AMRITCORP 23-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.50
DATASOFT 20-Mar-20 Reduction of Capital BENGALASM 23-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 15.00
GARFIBRES 20-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 7.00 BPCL 23-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 16.50

DISCLOSURE IN PURSUANCE OF SECTION 19 OF SEBI (RA) REGULATION 2014

Elite Wealth Advisors Limited does/does not do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware that the Elite Wealth Advisors Limited may/may not have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as read more


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