outlook-2020-03-17

NIFTY:

US  FED reduces interest rates, US markets are locked down

Such is the nature of the bear market this time. Almost always, a FED rate cut results in a sudden and serious rally. This time, two rate cuts in just 15 days have resulted in markets going limit down in the US.

While the US markets may actually perform better when they open up, it is fact that markets are very nervous.

Option implied volatility is extremely high

Implied volatility in options is a measure of the fear prevailling in the market. Normal IV in NIFTY options ranges between 10 to 20%. Currently, IV is in NIFTY options are 120% higher. This represents a sense of extream fear in the market.

The fear is not just about a  sudden decline. It is also about a sudden rally. Essentially, the fear is that market  may do something unknown. The first sign of a fall in volatility will be a fall in implied volatility of NIFTY options. We will alert you when this happens.

TECHNICAL PICKS

COMPANY  CMP B/S RATIONALE
     TORNTPHARM 1960.15 BUY The stock has given the breakout with volume  on the intraday as well as on the daily chart. The stock can be bought at CMP with a stop loss of  1900 and for the target of  2100.
      IBULHSGFIN 153.60 SELL The immediate trend of the stock is weak . The stock can be sold  at CMP with a stop loss of  165 and for  the target of  130.

 

 

DERIVATIVE PICKS

STOCK OPTION Strike Price Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Stop Loss Target Remarks
JUBLFOOD 1400 PE BUY 138.40 CMP 95 210 OI Increase
Long Buildup Short Buildup
Stocks Price Price% OI % OI   Stocks Price Price% OI % OI
IDEA.Mar 26 5.65 0 3.66 718340000 PVR.Mar 26 1175.05 -2.34 31.78 3391600
HDFCLIFE.Mar 26 471.45 -7.4 24.1 5084100
NIFTYIT.Mar 26 12399 -8.61 21.67 3650
INDIGO.Mar 26 962 -3.87 18.74 3741300
NIFTY.Mar 26 9095.75 -8.1 18.56 18324750
                                                                        Short Covering                                                                              Long unwinding
Sector Price Price% OI% OI Sector Price Price% OI% OI
YESBANK.Mar 26 30.1 64.48 -9 2.01E+08 SRTRANSFIN.Mar 26 753.55 -9.12 -4.23 3532800
GLENMARK.Mar 26 215 2.55 -5.2 3621800 EXIDEIND.Mar 26 138 -7.35 -3.86 6788900
HINDPETRO.Mar 26 200.8 2.82 -2.91 9611700 PNB.Mar 26 35.5 -5.33 -3.72 85423600
MOTHERSUMI.Mar 26 65.7 2.34 -0.26 28775000 VOLTAS.Mar 26 599.5 -7.19 -3.57 2509000
BANKBARODA.Mar 26 62.8 -3.16 -3.5 40224600

 

Top Delivery Percentage

Stocks Price %Chg Total Qty Delivery Del % % Change
Sectors Price Change % Quantity
Pidilite Industries Ltd 1480.6 -2.84 1162178 1650614 66.49   INDIA VIX 58.88 14.4 87012857
ADANIPORTS 261.4 -10.71 7727956 13302073 63.11 Nifty Pharma 6959.35 -4.25 70188245
HDFC LIFE INSURANCE COMP 474.2 -6.5 4059856 4943452 62 Nifty Media 1226.05 -4.39 4.04E+08
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS 300.3 -7.39 3695163 4591456 61.81 Nifty Auto 5843.7 -5.47 84111632
Power Grid Corporation o 157.95 -5.93 22313960 15415522 61.42 Nifty FMCG 24707.65 -5.72 1065187
HDFC Ltd. 1841.75 -10.89 10672843 8509931 60.04   Nifty Energy 11017.45 -6 3732790
UltraTech Cement Limited 3518.05 -7.15 975878 807100 58.53   Nifty 50 9197.4 -7.61 53036152
Info Edge (India) Limite 2182.95 -4.78 257214 298645 56.83   Nifty IT 12451.35 -8.03 2767145
ITC Ltd. 147.25 -9.24 33255085 34828490 56.55   Nifty Bank 23101.15 -8.21 21129896
HDFC BANK LTD. 999.5 -6.57 15993174 18672328 56.29   Nifty Metal 1730.6 -9.08 2.8E+08

 

Upcoming Economic Data

   Domestic                                                                                                                                                  International
•INR:  FX Reserves, USD on 16th March ,2020 •USA: Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)on 17th  March,2020

•USA: Fed Interest Rate Decision  on 18th  March,2020

 

News Updates

•Bajaj Auto Ltd on Monday said it has launched its BS-VI range of commercial vehicles across brands — RE, Maxima and Maxima Cargo. The company has launched 14 BS-VI compliant products across the RE, Maxima and Maxima Cargo brands and thus has transitioned to BS-VI regime for the entire three-wheeler range, Bajaj Auto said in a statement. With the upgrade, the RE brand now comes with fuel injection (FI) technology in a 236 cc engine across three fuel options — CNG, LPG and petrol.

•YES Bank will be resuming full banking services from March 18th, from 6pm. In a tweet, the bank said its 1132 branches across India will also be open for its customers. It will resume full banking services from Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 18:00 hrs.

•Vodafone Idea on Monday said it has made an additional payment of Rs 3,354 crore towards adjusted gross revenue (AGR) to the Department of Telecom (DoT), thereby completing payment of principal amount calculated on self-assessment basis. With this fresh payment, Vodafone Idea (VIL) has paid Rs 6,854 crore towards AGR dues.

•Shares of RBL Bank plunged over 24 percent in intraday trade to hit their fresh all-time low of Rs 156.45 on BSE and looked on course to extend their losing run into the third consecutive session on March 16. The stock cracked due to fears that it could be the next lender to face a crisis after Yes Bank.

Source: Economic Times,  Moneycontrol

 

BOARD MEETINGS

Company Name Purpose Ex-Date Company Name Purpose Ex-Date
ADANIENT Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 VSTTILLERS Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20
BCPL Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 ACEWIN General 18-Mar-20
GRAPHITE Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 DIXON Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
KIRLOSIND Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 FORCEMOT Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
KOTAKBANK Dividend on Preference Shares 17-Mar-20 HUDCO Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
MASTEK Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 LT Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
MIDEASTP Preferential Issue of shares 17-Mar-20 NLCINDIA General 18-Mar-20
MUTHOOTFIN Interim Dividend;General 17-Mar-20 PEL Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
RBLBANK Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 PPAP Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
SHILGRAVQ Interim Dividend 17-Mar-20 RPGLIFE Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
SUGALDAM General 17-Mar-20 SHK Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20
SUNPHARMA Buy Back of Shares 17-Mar-20 SMSPHARMA Interim Dividend 18-Mar-20

 

Corporate Action

Company Name Ex-Date Purpose Company Name Ex-Date Purpose
AIAENG 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 27.00 KTKBANK 17-Mar-20 Bonus issue 1:10
ARVINDFASN 17-Mar-20 Right Issue of Equity Shares PRECAM 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.95
BALAMINES 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.60 RATNAMANI 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 12.00
BRIGHTBR 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.00 SANDUMA 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 5.00
DEEPAKSP 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.50 SASKEN 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 15.00
GODFRYPHLP 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 24.00 SASKEN 17-Mar-20 Special Dividend – Rs. – 35.00
GRNLAMIND 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 4.00 SUNCLAYLTD 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 31.00
HATSUN 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.00 TVSMOTOR 17-Mar-20 Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.40

DISCLOSURE IN PURSUANCE OF SECTION 19 OF SEBI (RA) REGULATION 2014

Elite Wealth Advisors Limited does/does not do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware that the Elite Wealth Advisors Limited may/may not have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as read more


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