Morning Outlook 03rd October, 2022

NIFTY:

The NIFTY opened at 16798.05 with a minor gap down of just 20 points. Initially, the index moved lower but quickly found support and started consolidating inside a range. Prices recorded its intraday low at 16747.70 and then broke out on the upside. The index rallied sharply. The index kept on rising and crossed above 17000 quickly. The NIFTY recorded its intraday high at 17187.10 and saw a correction in the last hour of trading. The index finally closed at 17094.35 near its daily highs with a gain of 276.25 points or 1.64% up. All the sectoral indices have closed higher today led by METAL, BANK, and FINANCIAL which ended with a gain of over 2%. AUTO, MEDIA, and REALTY also performed well today and gained over 1%. The short-term trend has changed to sideways today which was down for many days. We have mentioned a strong support zone around 16800 – 17000. The index has bounced up at around 16800. The volatility has also started cooling off as we already expected. The INDIA VIX, a benchmark index for volatility is now moving below 20 which suggests the volatility is moderately high. We should wait for one or two days more and see if this rally sustains or if prices resume its down move.  As of now, we should avoid trading the index.

BANK NIFTY:

The BANK NIFTY opened at 37660 with a gap up of just 41 points. The index initially moved lower but quickly found support and turned up after recording its intraday low at 37386.35. The rally continued for the whole day, prices breaking above 38000 decisively and recording its intraday high at 38811. Prices have seen a correction in the last hour of trading and finally closed at 38726.50 with a gain of 725 points. PSU and PVT BANKS both have performed almost the same today, saw a sharp intraday rally, and dosed higher by 3.01% & 2.79% respectively. Within the index, in terms of points, HDFCBANK contributed the highest on the upside followed by ICICIBANK. The short-term trend is sideways now as prices have dosed well above 38000. Support is now visible at around 37500 while resistance is visible at around 39500. We were expecting a fall in volatility and that did happen. After a wide range days today, we should wait for one or two days more. We will plan our trades accordingly. As of now, avoid trading the index.

TECHNICAL PICKS

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DERIVATIVE PICKS

TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

NEWS UPDATES

• Indian benchmark indices ended sharply higher on September 30 with Nifty closing above 17,000 after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced repo rate hike by 50 bps. At Close, the Sensex was up 1,016.96 points or 1.80% at 57,426.92, and the Nifty was up 276.20 points or 1.64% at 17,094.30. About 2283 shares have advanced, 1058 shares declined, and 95 shares are unchanged.

• Escorts Kubota Ltd.’s total tractor sales rose 38.7% year-on-year to 12,232 units in September. The sales were considerably higher than analysts’ consensus estimate, which pegged the growth at just over 1%. Domestic tractor sales rose 42.7% to 11,384 units Tractor exports inched up 0.8% to 848 unit.

• Aviation Fuel Price Cut By 4.5%, Commercial LPG Rates Reduced By Rs 25.5 This is the sixth reduction in price of commercial LPG since June, in step with softening international energy prices.

• After its board meeting, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has allowed net settlement of cash segment and F&O (futures and options) segment upon expiry of stock derivatives. The decision has been taken to facilitate efficient settlement, according to a statement from the national markets regulator.

Source: Economic Times,  Indian Express, Business Today, Livemint, Business Standard, Bloomberg Quint

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